NIEZRÓWNOWAŻONA KLASYFIKACJA WIELOKLASOWA Z ADAPTACYJNYM SYNTETYCZNYM WIELOMIANOWYM NAIWNYM PODEJŚCIEM BAYESA

Opinions related to rising fuel prices need to be seen and analysed. Public opinion is closely related to public policy in Indonesia in the future. Twitter is one of the media that people use to convey their opinions. This study uses sentiment analysis to look at this phenomenon. Sentiment is divided into three categories: positive, neutral, and negative. The methods used in this research are Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes, Adaptive Synthetic k-nearest neighbours, and Adaptive Synthetic Random Forest. The Adaptive Synthetic method is used to handle unbalanced data. The data used in this study are public arguments per province in Indonesia. The results obtained in this study are negative sentiments that dominate all provinces in Indonesia. There is a relationship between negative sentiment and the level of education, internet use, and the human development index. Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes performed better than other methods, with an accuracy of 0.882. The highest accuracy of the Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes method is 0.990 in Papua Barat Province.Należy przyjrzeć się i przeanalizować opinie związane z rosnącymi cenami paliw. Opinia publiczna jest ściśle związana z polityką publiczną Indonezji w przyszłości. Twitter jest jednym z mediów, których ludzie używają do przekazywania swoich opinii. Niniejsze badanie wykorzystuje analizę nastrojów, aby przyjrzeć się temu zjawisku. Opinia jest podzielona na trzy kategorie: pozytywną, neutralną i negatywną. Metody wykorzystane w tym badaniu to Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes, Adaptive Synthetic k-nearest neighbours i Adaptive Synthetic Random Forest. Metoda Adaptive Synthetic służy do obsługi niezrównoważonych danych. Dane wykorzystane w tym badaniu to argumenty publiczne według prowincji w Indonezji. Wyniki uzyskane w tym badaniu to negatywne nastroje, które dominują we wszystkich prowincjach Indonezji. Istnieje związek między negatywnymi nastrojami a poziomem wykształcenia, korzystaniem z Internetu i wskaźnikiem rozwoju społecznego. Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes działała lepiej niż inne metody, z dokładnością 0,882. Najwyższa dokładność metody Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes wynosi 0,990 w prowincji Papua Barat

CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICE PREDICTION: A HYBRID LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY MODEL WITH GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY

Cryptocurrency is a virtual payment instrument currently popular as an investment alternative. One type of cryptocurrency widely used as an investment is Bitcoin due to its high-profit potential and risk due to unstable exchange rate fluctuations. This high exchange rate fluctuation makes trading transactions in the crypto market speculative and highly volatile. To overcome this volatility factor, this research used the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity forecasting method to describe the heteroscedasticity factor, as well as a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with long-short-term memory that has feedback in modeling sequential data for time series analysis. The two methods are combined to overcome the dependency of time series data in the long term and the heteroscedastic effect of the volatility of price changes. The results of the GARCH-LSTM hybrid model in this study show a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 15.69%. The accuracy value is obtained from the division of training data by 80% and testing data by 20%, with the number of neurons as many as three and epochs of 100 using the Adam optimizer. The MAPE accuracy results show a good prediction in predicting the value

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING USING REGRESSION NONPARAMETRIC OF FOURIER SERIES-POLYNOMIAL LOCAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Indonesia is a tropical country that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate change causes an effect on the level of comfort (heat stress) that can affect the level of human immunity, one of the indices to calculate the level of human comfort (heat stress) is the Thermal Humidity Index (THI). Climate change scenarios modeled in Earth System Models (ESMs). ESM has a coarse resolution and is subject to considerable bias. This research is using secondary data. The data source used in this study comes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This research will focus on projected heat stress which is calculated based on THI with the temperature and humidity variables. Therefore, in this research to reduce the bias correction method used Statistical Downscaling (SD) and nonparametric regression. The results of the bias correction using the Statistical Downscaling (SD) method and Nonparametric Regression Fourier-Polynomial Local Series in this study the R-square value for Relative Humidity yields 95% and for Temperature yields 94%. The projection of climate change based on the value of the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) in Indonesia in the category of 50% of the population of Indonesians feeling comfortable conditions occurred in 2006-2059. Then the population of citizens in Indonesia felt uncomfortable conditions occurred in 2060 to 2100 with a THI value of 27.0730°C - 27.7800°C

UNBALANCED MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION WITH ADAPTIVE SYNTHETIC MULTINOMIAL NAIVE BAYES APPROACH

Opinions related to rising fuel prices need to be seen and analysed. Public opinion is closely related to public policy in Indonesia in the future. Twitter is one of the media that people use to convey their opinions. This study uses sentiment analysis to look at this phenomenon. Sentiment is divided into three categories: positive, neutral, and negative. The methods used in this research are Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes, Adaptive Synthetic k-nearest neighbours, and Adaptive Synthetic Random Forest. The Adaptive Synthetic method is used to handle unbalanced data. The data used in this study are public arguments per province in Indonesia. The results obtained in this study are negative sentiments that dominate all provinces in Indonesia. There is a relationship between negative sentiment and the level of education, internet use, and the human development index. Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes performed better than other methods, with an accuracy of 0.882. The highest accuracy of the Adaptive Synthetic Multinomial Naive Bayes method is 0.990 in Papua Barat Province

COMPARISON OF RANDOM FOREST AND NAÏVE BAYES CLASSIFIER METHODS IN SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE

The last decade was recorded as a decade with a bad record on the issue of disasters in the world due to climate change. Measuring public opinion is one of the steps to mitigate the impact of climate change. Twitter is a popular social media for channeling opinions. Twitter provides a great source of data for understanding public opinion and the perceived risk of an issue. In recent decades, when discussing climate change, there are those who agree and those who oppose it. Sentiment analysis is a branch of learning in the realm of text mining that is used as a solution to see opinions on a problem, one of which is climate change. In this study, we will try to analyze opinions on climate change issues using the Random Forest and Naïve Bayes classifier methods. Data were obtained from Twitter for the period January 2022-June 2022. The training data used in this research is 80%:20%. There are slightly more positive statements than negative ones. The results obtained with the Naïve Bayes classifier method are an accuracy of 76.25%, an F-1 score of 78%, and a recall of 80%. While the results of the random forest method are 70.6% accuracy, 69% F-1 score, and 63% recall. The Nive Bayes method is better than the Random Forest method for classifying climate change opinions with an accuracy of 76.25%

SMOOTH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SSVM) UNTUK PENGKLASIFIKASIAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA KABUPATEN/KOTA SE-INDONESIA

Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) adalah mengukur capaian pembangunan manusia berbasis sejumlah komponen dasar kualitas hidup. Indeks pembangunan manusia dikatakan rendah jika IPM kurang dari 60, IPM sedang antara 60 sampai kurang dari 70,IPM tinggi antara 70 sampai kurang dari 80, dan sama dengan 80 dan lebih dari 80 tergolong IPM tinggi. Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) merupakan teknik pengklasifikasian yang tergolong baru. Algoritma yang digunakan adalah Newton Armijo dengan pendekatan kernel linier, polynomial, dan Radial Basis Function (RBF). Hasil klasifikasi indeks pembangunan manusia dengan metode SSVM dengan kernel linier menunjukan keakuratan prediksi sebesar 84.77%, kernel polynomial 61.65%, dan kernel RBF sebesar 100%. Dengan jumlah klasifikasi 440 kabupaten/ kota untuk kernel linier,kernel polynomial 320, dan kernel RBF 519 kabupaten/kota yang dibagi menjadi 4 klasifikasi menurut BPS. Dari ketiga kernel yang digunakan kernel Radial Basis Function (RBF) merupakan kernel yang paling akurat dalam memperdiksi serta IPM.Kata kunci: Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM),  kernel, akurasi, klasifikas

EVALUASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG DAN RUEY CHYN TSAUR

Penelitian ini berfokus terhadap evaluasi metode Logika Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng dan Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Logika Ruey Chyn Tsaur yang diterapkan pada data Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP). Data NTP yang digunakan adalah data NTP bulanan Provinsi Jawa Tengah dari periode 2008-2020. Evaluasi metode menggunakan Mean Square Error (MSE) dan Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk melihat ketepatan/akurasinya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa peramalan FTS Logika Cheng dan FTS Logika Ruey Chyn Tsaur keduanya memiliki pola yang hampir sama dengan pola data sebenarnya. Hasil MSE dan MAPE dari FTS logika Cheng adalah 0,3331 dan 0,43%, sedangkan hasil MSE dan MAPE logika Ruey Chyn Tsaur FTS adalah 0,4054 dan 0,47%. Peramalan periode berikutnya menggunakan FTS logika Cheng sebesar 101,1711 dan FTS logika Ruey Chyn Tsaur sebesar 101,4112

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasting using the Cascade Forward Neural Network

Crude oil is one of the most traded non-food products or commodities in the world. In Indonesia, crude oil will still be a contributor to the gross domestic product in 2021. The excessive consumption of fuel oil (BBM) in Indonesia has resulted in a scarcity of crude oil, especially diesel. Forecasting the price of Brent crude oil is an important effort to anticipate fluctuations in the price of fuel oil. The cascade-forward neural network (CFNN) method is proposed to forecast fuel prices because of its superiority in fluctuating data types. The data used in this research is the price of Brent crude oil in the period January 2008 to December 2022. The CFNN method will be evaluated using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to choose the best architectural model. The best Architectural Model is used to predict the next 12 months. After 10 architectural model trials, 2-6-1 became the best model with a MAPE data training value of 6.3473% and MAPE data testing of 9.4689%. Forecasting the results for Brent crude oil for the next 12 months tends to experience a downward trend until December 2023